The prices for cashew nut kernels came down significantly during the past weeks due to lack of interest from buyers. Processors were/are unhappy with this development as their purchasing price for RCN did not allow them to make a profit with the current kernel prices. Most of them had no choice as they had to fulfil their financial obligations in time.
Due to the lower prices, interest showed up last week and from Thursday/Friday (last week) on we saw kernel prices increasing by Usd 0,05-0,15 per lbs. Processors were triggered by the show up of demand and immediately increased prices. Is this sustainable or will buyers step out of the market and wait again? As far as we judged and calculate, RCN volumes in Vietnam should be OK for processing until new crop shows up. East African crops will become available shortly, although expected at higher price. This higher price would still work for the Indian processing industry as their domestic market is paying better prices. The big question mark is demand. Do the high prices of last year and beginning of this year have an impact on demand. Big importers/packers are ‘complaining’ that demand is down and that we will see slower shipment from August/September 2018 onwards. Time will tell.
As prices are still at favourable levels, we still recommend to take/cover positions for Jan-Dec 2019.