According to the latest figures collected with Amitom and other local sources around the world, the World processed tomatoes output will hardly exceed 33 Millions MT. (33.2 Millions MT.), down 11 % from last crop and an astonishing -21 % from 2015.
All regions are on the downside except North America thanks to California, up 25 % from 2017. The largest drops are Iran at -65 % and, more important to the economy of processed tomatoes, China down 45 % from a year ago. The 2018 Chinese output is less than a 1/3 of its record volume from 2009.
Europe follows the same trend with a 17 % reduction from a year ago with Portugal and Spain down respectively 26 % and 18 %.
This huge contraction comes from reduced surfaces and poor yields in most parts of the world. Moreover, the low production yields (lower brix and poorer fresh fruits quality) will induce further reductions of finished products !
When looking at the pattern of the world production for the 4 last years, we noticed a very interesting detail : it highly resembles the 4 crops following the over production of 2009 :
2009 : 44 Millions MT – 2015 : 42 Millions MT (very strong overproduction)
2010 : 37,6 Millions MT – 2016 : 37,6 Millions MT (strong reduction)
2011 : 37,3 Millions MT – 2017 : 37,2 Millions MT (stability)
2012 : 33,2 Millions MT – 2018 : 33,2 Millions MT (strong reduction)
Comparison is not reason as says the proverb but one can clearly expect a strong price recovery like the one processors enjoyed back 6 years ago !