Doraintrade Dried Fruit Newsletter – February 2017
Hazelnut Trees in winter
First month of the year 2018, hazelnuts market started fast. Due to the decreasing good quality raw material availability as well as increased overseas demand resulted with higher raw material prices.
In January, some Hazelnuts product types gained more than 10% value. Especially Giresun quality hazelnuts raw material availability became very limited that the roasted and blanched types of finished product export prices have risen the most.
From now, all types of prices deny on news from orchards about the winter condition and early expectations of new crop 2018. By March, we will possibly see the news of expectations that will no doubt affect the current crop price levels.
Moreover, there is no news from TMO since they finalised buying by the 1st of Jan. If the raw material price levels move so much up that Turkish export activity may be affected from it, government may decide to start auctions to sell in handed raw material to the packers.
From today price levels, we can share with you the current export offers for FCL, prompt shipments Fob base as follows,
11-13mm Natural Giresun quality hazelnuts in Net 25Kgs vacuums at USD.6880- pmtons Fob.
11-13mm Natural Levant quality hazelnuts in Net 25Kgs vacuums at USD.6320- pmtons Fob.
13-15mm Natural Giresun quality hazelnuts in Net 25Kgs vacuums at USD.7450- pmtons Fob.
13-15mm Natural Levant quality hazelnuts in Net 25Kgs vacuums at USD.6900- pmtons Fob.
11-13mm Blanched Giresun quality hazelnuts in Net 25Kgs vacuums at USD.8200- pmtons Fob.
13-15mm Blanched Giresun quality hazelnuts in Net 25Kgs vacuums at USD.8850- pmtons Fob.
All offers are subject to our final confirmation.
We will keep you updated from the changes in the market as usual.
Dried Fig Cake
Turkish Dried Figs
Turkish dried figs prices continue to increase as it never stopped since the beginning of 2017.
Although export shipments of 2017 crop is around 35.000mtons levels by now, we can see a serious shortage of raw material. Especially, big sizes fruits N1, N2, N3 almost finished or the prices become too expensive. Most of the buyers of big sizes dried figs have rotated to small sizes this year in order to continue their business. Remaining quantity for larger fruits are either already contracted or waiting for Ramadan period sales now.
Despite of available stock raw material is limited quantity now, we observe that the quality is acceptable concerning the time of the year depending on storage conditions of the manufacturers. Also, small size dried figs N 8,9,10 and baby sizes are actually at quite cost-effective prices currently. We can see almost double price difference between baby whole fig sand N4’s recently. While natural dried figs N4 bulk shipment price offers are around USD6/Kg nowadays, N10’s around USD3,2/Kg and Baby size around USD2,4/Kg on Fob basis.
Until new crop 2018 will be coming to the market in September, we do not expect a major relief in price levels. But may increase during Spring period while the availability will be getting shorter.
This season’s main quality topic is aflatoxin and ochratoxin. Finally, we can watch significant number of rejections through RAPID alert system from EU countries due to Aflatoxin, Ochratoxin and microbiology problems.
With the current availabilities in the market, we would like to help you if you have any enquiries of dried figs.
Turkish Sultana Raisins
By the beginning of January 2018, there has been a price rise in the Turkish Sultanas. Some big packers came to the raw material bourse willing to pay the requested price by the growers. Because of this situation, growers and handles slightly increased the raw material prices. Finally first 3 weeks of January, Sultana bourse prices arrived TL5/Kg to TL5,4/kg levels. While the brokers and growers were thinking this increase will continue, by the last week of this month, demand stopped suddenly as there is almost no raw material trade nowadays.
Some interprets the situation as; big packers already done huge quantity of contracts and well planned until summer. As they wanted other players to struggle with the new sales and on purpose increased the market. While others think that remaining stocks are really limited and may be not enough to survive until September 2018, moreover growers side is experiencing very warm winter that there is a quite big risk of early blossoms and frost damage afterwards.
Whichever is the factor, if the reason is not related to a real fact, we may see the coming weeks big changes in the prices, whether it continues increase or this rest will go along.
There is another case which is very certain picture that this year due to USA raisins prices and Turkey’s historical short production of thompsons type raisins raw material export prices have gone record high.
In the beg. of crop TL4,5 started thompsons prices reached TL8,5 by this week. Also export offers were USD1,900-p/mtons Fob levels in the September17. And now thompsons type offers are around USD2,650- pmtons with only few container availability. Of course this scenario is only once in many years that we already expect next year production quantity will grow up as many growers will be expecting high price levels and finally next season thompsons prices may be very competitive levels due to the big supply.
It’s highly recommended by now to contract only prompt needs that we may not be able to see the market prices future until end of March18.
While the Turkish origin sultana prices were increasing in past weeks. We hear the news from Iran that they offer standard quality at around USD1450- p/mtons levels. As they stay aggressive to finish off current stock by March 18, this competitive price levels may look ideal comparing Turkish prices for EU buyers. If buyers from EU prefer Iranian origin for further shipments until March- April, we can see even relief in Turkish prices due to slow shipments.
Apricot Trees in Winter
Turkish Dried Apricots
Raw material prices increase continue for the dried apricots products too. This season, until the end of January 59.000mtons of dried apricots product has been exported overseas from all grades and qualities. When we compare this level with last year figures, we can see around 20% increase in quantity. However, except some quality issues, 2017 crop is well bigger than 2016 in volume. We do not estimate by now there is real raw material shortage has started but raw material suppliers such as growers and handlers now limiting the supply as the prices rise.
Main factor behind this fact is the dry and warm winter conditions in the growing region of Malatya. There is risk of early blossom due to the warm winter together with risk for water shortages in Spring. Raw material suppliers think if there will be a frost damage at the end of March, prices will increase sharply that they are slightly increasing the prices now step by step.
However, we will not be able to see the actual result of dry winter before the blossoms and early stage of the fruits. We already see the N4 So2 dried apricots export prices exceed USD4000-p/mtons fob basis level from past 2 weeks.
As a result of big crop in 2017, small sizes or industrial, dices of dried apricots are still in the market with quite competitive prices.
One of this year’s quality topic for apricots is size deviation. The fruits maturated rapidly because of weather conditions while the sizes didn’t get bigger but fruits have more weight as maturation is fast. The fruit pieces which are visually small, actually as weight within the limits of related size. But this increases the losses at the facilities during sieving process and longer production schedules.
Another quality problem of 2017 crop has been So2 levels. Due to raw material structure this crop, sulphur process in the orchards could not applied very precisely resulting the raw material has in-homogenous So2 level. So, when it is packed to destinations like EU with such strict So2 limit regulations, many problems appear. In case of in-homogenous So2 level exist in the product, not only colour deviation would be a problem but also each So2 lab analysis results differently. Although all packers check So2 levels and make sure its below 2000ppm before shipment, we see increasing numbers of customs rejections through RAPID alert from all over EU regarding to So2 levels. We estimate this year 50% more customs rejections regarding So2 level. With this fact, we can see increasing number of analysis or more serious sanctions by the EU commission in future.
We will continue to observe the market conditions and will update you frequently.
Below Chart shows figures of Turkish dried fruits varieties tonnage, average export prices and its comparison with last year figures.