Turkish Dried Fruits

Doraintrade Dried Fruit Newsletter – December 2017

Turkish Hazelnuts
By November 2017, we have seen major price increase in the hazelnuts market relating with
fast Christmas shipments and TMO purchasing activity. As we already inform you all,
Government TMO offices purchasing raw material appointments are ending by the end of
December 2017. From the new-year, TMO is planned to finalise buying action. This has
obviously affect to the market as TMO is now holding around 150.000mtons of inshell
hazelnuts raw material that nobody knows whether TMO will return the hazelnuts to the
market with selling auctions or will keep until carry-over for 2018 crop. Most common idea
of the market, decisive situation will be to wait until the first estimations of new crop in MarchApril
period. If the winter condition will not be much efficient for another good crop in 2018,
or the blossoms would be weak, Government can keep the in handed quantity to distribute
to the market in later time. Eventually, many packers think private sector will need this quantity
soon or late as the available raw material is reducing from the raw material markets day by
day.

Interesting point is the price increase occurred instead of stronger USD currency against TL,
which means nominal price increase was much more comparing with the Turkish Lira parity.
But by the beg. of December, we saw some relief in prices as the overseas buyers did not rise
interests to the higher prices. Also because of the Christmas period already started and most
of the Chocolate producers already covered up export market nowadays goes slow. This is
why for 3 weeks period price offers are quite stable, you can see below some rough price
ideas for full container base

11-13mm Natural Giresun quality hazelnuts in Net 25Kgs vacuums at USD.6090- pmtons Fob.
11-13mm Natural Levant quality hazelnuts in Net 25Kgs vacuums at USD.5815- pmtons Fob.
13-15mm Natural Giresun quality hazelnuts in Net 25Kgs vacuums at USD.6445- pmtons Fob.
13-15mm Natural Levant quality hazelnuts in Net 25Kgs vacuums at USD.6100- pmtons Fob.
11-13mm Blanched Giresun quality hazelnuts in Net 25Kgs vacuums at USD.7200- pmtons Fob.
13-15mm Blanched Giresun quality hazelnuts in Net 25Kgs vacuums at USD.7530- pmtons Fob.
All offers are subject to our final confirmation.

Until now, we expect more than 100.000mtons of hazelnuts kernels have been exported which
this level is average comparing to the previous year.
Although crop was not small in 2017, yield is very low. And together with some quality
problems, we believe demand will increase after 20th January 2018. That may support the price
levels may move up some more. Then, new crop estimations, TMO behaviours and most
importantly USD currency against TL will be the main powers on market prices. We will keep
you updated from the changes in the market as usual.

Turkish Dried Figs
Since the beginning of 2016 crop, average 20% price increase has never slow down on Turkish
dried figs.
There was a general expectation that every year after the first vessel date, there is a slight
price decrease due to high demand for the earliest shipments. However, in this year, we saw
even the price increase continued until now at the end of the year.
Although some do, we don’t expect any more price relief until new crop 2018 in September.
Even if demand slows down after new-year period, raw material that is average quality for
export remained very little quantity already. Thus, we can see that good quality raw material
has been very short in quantity with 2017 crop dried figs.

At the beginning of the crop, September 2017 USD rate against TL was around 3,4 levels and
by now December 2017 rate rose to 3,86 as we see already +12% increase on the USD value
against Turkish lira. So, if we compare the nominal price increase for the Dried figs, there would be around 12-15% from the 2017 beg of the crop and 25% comparing the last crop
2016.

We believe good quality dried figs raw material prices at the growers’ side already maintained
20TL/Kg levels. This fact probably influence to next crop 2018 as well that growers most likely
will try to open new crop from the same levels. So only remaining fact would be USD currency.

You can see below some rough price ideas on different sizes for full container base
Turkish Dried Figs Whole Natural Size 3 in Bulk cartons at USD6500-pmtons Fob Izmir.
Turkish Dried Figs Whole Natural Size 4 in Bulk cartons at USD6300-pmtons Fob Izmir.
Turkish Dried Figs Whole Natural Size 5 in Bulk cartons at USD6000-pmtons Fob Izmir.
Turkish Dried Figs Whole Natural Size 6 in Bulk cartons at USD5800-pmtons Fob Izmir.
Turkish Dried Figs Whole Natural Size 7 in Bulk cartons at USD5400-pmtons Fob Izmir.
All offers are subject to our final confirmation.

In this season, market mostly talked about price levels more than the quality of the figs as very
hot topic always been the price so far.
Actually, as the price increase relates to lack of good quality availability in the raw material
market. Moreover, we observed mould and sour matters are the biggest issues this year.
Especially in the beginning of the crop mould rate was very severe as around 20% in raw
material. Due to the mould, Aflatoxin risk increase in parallel. By December we can still find
quality raw material as the stocks by the growers and handlers coming up to market in order
to clear the warehouses before weathers get warmer in spring. This season insect damage is
below the standards (max12%) and with usual winter conditions, relating to drier fruits
crystallisation and inside too dry figs rate is increasing.

Turkish Sultana Raisins
Another product maybe totally depending on USD rate conditions is Turkish Raisins this year.
With a big crop, Turkey is leading the cheapest prices of this season all over the world in 2017
season.

Even though Turkey is without an opponent in the global markets, competition between
exporters as well as pressure from overseas buyers, keeping the market prices the lowest.
When we observe weekly export statistics, we can see around 5000mtons were being shipped
during past weeks that is around 10% above of the last year volumes. So we can say that raisins
exports are going in speed by this season probably also long term contracts are being done
that in case of some problem may appear for 2018 crop estimations. Average export price
level is more or less the same with the last year. Nowadays, Std type N9 Sultanas raisins prices
are between USD1450-1500 per m/tons Fob basis for prompt shipments. However, for long
term contracts, packers demand +50USD per ton upcharge in general, due to these factors
of; high financial cost of keeping raw material in long period, expectation of rising prices in
Spring, risk of negative new crop expectations in March – April, unreliable USD rates for
coming months.

In fact, we can see already some movement in the raw material bourse prices by the week 51,
average raw material prices for type 8 is above 4,2TL/Kg, type 9 for 4,4TL/Kg and type 10
4,6TL/Kg.
Another, sharp price increase occurred for thompsons type raisins. Thompsons started new
crop at 5TL/kg raw material price levels. But by now, in December current price level is
6,5TL/kg.
As the thompsons raisins price levels are still very favourable and very competitive comparing
with USA origin flame raisins, we recommend to our clients to contract for the long term
needs of thompsons in case of raw material availability decreases and prices go even higher in
coming months.

We believe there will be physical carry over for the next crop, but depends on the new crop
estimations that will start by late March and April period all depand on winter weather
conditions as well as early spring weathers, mentioned carry over may already been contracted
before the summer as it worked well for the buyers last year.
We will of course keep you updated about changing conditions of the raisins and Sultanas
market as usual.

Turkish Dried Apricots
Dried Apricots shipments are very slow comparing with the normal year conditions. Start
from the beginning of the crop (July 2017) and until now, 40.000mtons of whole dried apricots
have been exported. This can be seen more than last year (33.000mtons). However, when we
consider 2017 crop was a very big crop, reality slightly changes.

In a normal year, we estimate 60% of the quantity should be exported until Christmas/newyear
period. After that, 40% may be exported until another new crop time. While we expect
100.000mtons of 2017 crop quantity, it shows general export sales are some 20% shorter than
average season statistics. This facts show that we may have a big carry over at the end of this
season.
Also if the new crop estimations come up positively by April, we can be witness of a serious
price decrease.
In normal circumstances, we should expect decrease on current price levels even now.
However, in reality raw material market kept increased for several weeks although demand
was quite slow.

One of the reason, is handlers who stocked most of the raw materials in the market are
reluctant to sell their stock less than they purchased 6 months ago. And another reason is this
year has size problems; due to big crop bigger sizes became unavailable while there is huge
smaller sizes stock. Nowadays demand is very week for N8 apricots even the prices are
around USD1800- per ton Fob basis but bigger fruits are almost double price because there
is only demand for them

You can see below some rough price ideas for full container base
Dried Apricots So2 (Max2000ppm) Size 2 in bulk cartons at USD3575- p/mtons Fob
Dried Apricots So2 (Max2000ppm) Size 3 in bulk cartons at USD3300- p/mtons Fob
Dried Apricots So2 (Max2000ppm) Size 4 in bulk cartons at USD3050- p/mtons Fob
All offers are subject to our final confirmation.

We will keep you updated about changing conditions of the market as usual.
You can see below parity diagram. USD’s rise against TL recently is obviously most vital factor
in our business.

Below Chart shows figures of Turkish dried fruits varieties tonnage, average export prices and
its comparison with last year figures.
Export Figures Of Turkish Sultana Raisins / Dried Apricots/ Dried
Figs in Comparison with same period last year

You might also like